Travel surveillance uncovers dengue virus dynamics and introductions in the Caribbean.

Dengue is the most prevalent mosquito-borne viral disease in humans, and cases are continuing to rise globally. In particular, islands in the Caribbean have experienced more frequent outbreaks, and all four dengue virus (DENV) serotypes have been reported in the region, leading to hyperendemicity and increased rates of severe disease. However, there is significant variability regarding virus surveillance and reporting between islands, making it difficult to obtain an accurate understanding of the epidemiological patterns in the Caribbean. To investigate this, we used travel surveillance and genomic epidemiology to reconstruct outbreak dynamics, DENV serotype turnover, and patterns of spread within the region from 2009-2022. We uncovered two recent DENV-3 introductions from Asia, one of which resulted in a large outbreak in Cuba, which was previously under-reported. We also show that while outbreaks can be synchronized between islands, they are often caused by different serotypes. Our study highlights the importance of surveillance of infected travelers to provide a snapshot of local introductions and transmission in areas with limited local surveillance and suggests that the recent DENV-3 introductions may pose a major public health threat in the region.

A methodology for estimating SARS-CoV-2 importation risk by air travel into Canada between July and November 2021.

BACKGROUND: Estimating rates of disease importation by travellers is a key activity to assess both the risk to a country from an infectious disease emerging elsewhere in the world and the effectiveness of border measures. We describe a model used to estimate the number of travellers infected with SARS-CoV-2 into Canadian airports in 2021, and assess the impact of pre-departure testing requirements on importation risk. METHODS: A mathematical model estimated the number of essential and non-essential air travellers infected with SARS-CoV-2, with the latter requiring a negative pre-departure test result. The number of travellers arriving infected (i.e. imported cases) depended on air travel volumes, SARS-CoV-2 exposure risk in the departure country, prior infection or vaccine acquired immunity, and, for non-essential travellers, screening from pre-departure molecular testing. Importation risk was estimated weekly from July to November 2021 as the number of imported cases and percent positivity (PP; i.e. imported cases normalised by travel volume). The impact of pre-departure testing was assessed by comparing three scenarios: baseline (pre-departure testing of all non-essential travellers; most probable importation risk given the pre-departure testing requirements), counterfactual scenario 1 (no pre-departure testing of fully vaccinated non-essential travellers), and counterfactual scenario 2 (no pre-departure testing of non-essential travellers). RESULTS: In the baseline scenario, weekly imported cases and PP varied over time, ranging from 145 to 539 cases and 0.15 to 0.28%, respectively. Most cases arrived from the USA, Mexico, the United Kingdom, and France. While modelling suggested that essential travellers had a higher weekly PP (0.37 - 0.65%) than non-essential travellers (0.12 - 0.24%), they contributed fewer weekly cases (62 - 154) than non-essential travellers (84 - 398 per week) given their lower travel volume. Pre-departure testing was estimated to reduce imported cases by one third (counterfactual scenario 1) to one half (counterfactual scenario 2). CONCLUSIONS: The model results highlighted the weekly variation in importation by traveller group (e.g., reason for travel and country of departure) and enabled a framework for measuring the impact of pre-departure testing requirements. Quantifying the contributors of importation risk through mathematical simulation can support the design of appropriate public health policy on border measures.

Cutaneous Larva Migrans.

BACKGROUND: Cutaneous larva migrans (CLM) is a helminthic infection found in tropical areas. It is commonly seen in patients in contact with soil contaminated by cat and dog hookworm larvae. CLM manifests as an erythematous, serpiginous, and pruritic cutaneous eruption. We present a case of a 27-year-old female with a serpiginous lesion on the plantar surface of the right foot. METHODS AND RESULTS: The patient was prescribed Albendazole at 400 mg twice a day for three days. After treatment, the lesion and pruritus have decreased in severity. CONCLUSIONS: Hookworm-related CLM is diagnosed clinically based on the typical clinical presentation. Clinicians need to be aware of the possibility of hookworm-related CLM with a history of travel to tropical areas, especially walking barefoot.

Travel burdens to access care among children with cancer between 2016 and 2019: Analysis of a national population-based cancer registry in Japan.

BACKGROUND: Centralization of cancer care increases survival but increases the travel burden (i.e., travel durations, distances, and expenditures) in visiting hospitals. This study investigated the travel burdens to access cancer care for children aged 18 years and younger in Japan. METHODS: The study population comprised 10,709 patients diagnosed between 2016 and 2019 obtained from a national population-based cancer registry in Japan. Their residences were classified as urban or rural. We counted the number of patients treated at specialized hospitals and investigated the treatment centralization across diagnostic groups by Pareto plot. Travel burdens to access care were estimated using a route-planner web service and summarized using median values. A multivariable logistic model was performed to investigate factors associated with the events of car travel duration exceeding 1 h. RESULTS: Of the patients, 76.7% lived in urban areas, and 82.5% received treatment in designated hospitals for childhood cancer. The Pareto plot suggested that the top five hospitals treated 63.5% of patients with retinoblastoma. The estimated travel burdens for all patients were 0.62 h (0.57 h in urban areas and 1.00 h in rural areas), 16.9 km, and 0.0 dollars of toll charges. Regarding travel duration, 21.7% of patients had travel exceeding 1 h, and rural areas, retinoblastoma, malignant bone tumors, and childhood cancer-hub hospitals were associated with travel duration exceeding 1 h (adjusted odds ratios of 6.93, 3.59, 1.94, and 1.91, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Most patients were treated in specialized hospitals and the treatments for specific diseases were centralized. However, most patients were estimated to travel less than 1 h, and the travel burden tended to increase for patients in rural areas, those with specific diseases, and those going to specialized hospitals. Cancer control measures in Japan have steadily improved centralized treatment while keeping the travel burden relatively manageable.

Does the priority of ambulance guarantee no delay? a MIPSSTW model of emergency vehicle routing optimization considering complex traffic conditions for highway incidents.

Globally, traffic accidents on the highway network contribute significantly to a high fatality rate, drawing considerable attention from health institutions. The efficiency of transportation plays a vital role in mitigating the severe consequences of these incidents. This study delves into the issues of emergency vehicles experiencing delays despite having priority. Therefore, we construct mixed-integer linear programming with semi-soft time windows (MIPSSTW) model for optimizing emergency vehicle routing in highway incidents. We analyze the time-varying and complex traffic situations and respectively propose corresponding estimation approaches for the travel time of road segments, intersections on the urban road network, and ramp-weave sections on the highway network. Furthermore, we developed a modified cuckoo search(MCS) algorithm to solve this combinatorial problem. Optimization strategies of Lévy flight and dynamic inertial weight strategy are introduced to strengthen the exploration capability and the diversity of solution space of the CS algorithm. Computational experiments based on the Chinese emergency medical system data are designed to validate the efficacy and effectiveness of the MIPSSTW model and MCS algorithm. The results show that our works succeed in searching for high-quality solutions for emergency vehicle routing problems and enhance the efficacy of strategic decision-making processes in the realm of incident management and emergency response systems.

An assessment of the perceptual elements of urban streets based on the context of urban tourism - The case of Sheffield.

Background: After COVID-19, more and more travelers are more inclined to walk in cities, and the sensory elements of streets can have a significant impact on urban tourism. Local residents and travelers have different perceptions of the street and preferences for its use. The purpose of this study is to evaluate and analyse the streets from the perspective of locals and travelers. Method: In this study, a questionnaire was designed to obtain local residents' and travelers' evaluations of the sensory elements of the street and a quadrant analysis of the street's sensory elements was carried out using the IPA-Kano model. Results: The results of the study show that travelers are particularly concerned about maps and signage guidance, while local residents are more concerned about the green environment of the surroundings and how well it is maintained. Conclusion: There is a difference in the indicators chosen by the two groups in the results of the comparison between locals and travelers, and this study is hoped to provide some data support for future urban managers and designers to learn from and refer to for street improvements and renewal.

Risk perceptions and behaviors concerning rural tourism and economic-political drivers of COVID-19 policy in 2020.

When COVID-19 was first introduced to the United States, state and local governments enacted a variety of policies intended to mitigate the virulence of the epidemic. At the time, the most effective measures to prevent the spread of COVID-19 included stay-at-home orders, closing of nonessential businesses, and mask mandates. Although it was well known that regions with high population density and cold climates were at the highest risk for disease spread, rural counties that are economically reliant on tourism were incentivized to enact fewer precautions against COVID-19. The uncertainty of the COVID-19 pandemic, the multiple policies to reduce transmission, and the changes in outdoor recreation behavior had a significant impact on rural tourism destinations and management of protected spaces. We utilize fine-scale incidence and demographic data to study the relationship between local economic and political concerns, COVID-19 mitigation measures, and the subsequent severity of outbreaks throughout the continental United States. We also present results from an online survey that measured travel behavior, health risk perceptions, knowledge and experience with COVID-19, and evaluation of destination attributes by 407 out-of-state visitors who traveled to Maine from 2020 to 2021. We synthesize this research to present a narrative on how perceptions of COVID-19 risk and public perceptions of rural tourism put certain communities at greater risk of illness throughout 2020. This research could inform future rural destination management and public health policies to help reduce negative socioeconomic, health and environmental impacts of pandemic-derived changes in travel and outdoor recreation behavior.

Study on the temporal and spatial relationship between public health events and the development of air transport scale: A case of the Southwest China.

The spread of the COVID-19 had profoundly affected the development of the air transportation. In order to determine the changes in air transportation volume associated with the development of the epidemic, this paper takes Southwest China as the study area. Monthly data and methods, such as the coefficient of variation, rank-size analysis and spatial matching index, were applied. The results found that: (1) during 2020-2022, there was a positive relationship between passenger volume and epidemic development, while freight volume increased for most airports in the first quarter of 2020-2022, particularly in the eastern region; (2) From the perspective of changes in air transportation volume under the development of the COVID-19, among various types of airports, the changes in transportation volume of main trunk airports were more significant than those of regional feeder airports in remote areas; (3) however, under the influence of the epidemic, main trunk airports still exhibited stronger attraction in passenger volume. That is to say, the passengers who chose to travel by air still tended to choose the main trunk airports and formed the agglomeration distribution pattern which around high-level airports in the provincial capital. Whereas the freight volume had a tendency of equalization among airports in Southwest China; (4) Over the course of time, the consistency of the spatial distribution of the number of cases and the passenger or freight volume in southwest China gradually increased. Among them, the spatial matching rate of the passenger volume and the number of COVID-19 cases was always higher than that of the cases and freight volume, which might indicate that there was a stronger correlation relationship. Therefore, it is proposed that the construction of multi-center airport system should be strengthened, the resilience of the route network for passenger transportation should be moderately enhanced, and the risk-resistant capacity of mainline airports and airports in tourist cities should be upgraded, so as to provide references for the orderly recovery of civil aviation and regional development.

Protection enhancement strategies of potential outbreaks during Hajj.

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to assist governments and organizers of mass gathering events in reviewing existing preventive measures for disease outbreaks to inform the adoption of enhanced strategies for risk reduction and impacts on public health. DESIGN: A cross-sectional, quantitative, descriptive study. SETTING: This study was conducted in a mass gathering of Hajj, an annual religious event in Mecca, Saudi Arabia. PARTICIPANTS: A convenience sample of 70 personnel working in government ministries of Saudi Arabia (Ministry of Health, Ministry of Hajj, and Ministry of Interior) and the Saudi Red Crescent Authority involved in health management in Hajj, including policy formulation and implementation. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Perception and knowledge of health risks and outbreaks associated with Hajj. RESULTS: The majority of the respondents (60 percent) expressed concern about the potential for infection transmission during Hajj. The respondents also reported having or knowing a colleague, a friend, or a family member with a history of infection during or after Hajj. However, the respondents' knowledge of the possible modes of infection of various diseases was limited. CONCLUSIONS: Hajj is associated with various risks of outbreaks, and thus, better protection-enhancing measures are required. Training personnel involved in health management, including planners, coordinators, and healthcare providers, can help reduce the risks and prevent potential outbreaks.

Risk perception about communicable and vector borne diseases among international travellers to Pakistan: A cross sectional study.

With the rise in air travel, the risk of diseases travelling from one geographical area to another has also increased. Relatively little is known about how travellers know and perceive the health risks associated with travel and how they adopt preventive measures before and while travelling abroad. The objective of this study is to determine the risk perception about communicable and vector-borne diseases among international travellers arriving from different countries and to find any association between the level of risk perception and independent variables. A cross-sectional study was conducted with 426 participants enrolled through convenient sampling technique. An already validated questionnaire was used to collect information. Chi square test was applied to ascertain any significant association between dependent and independent variables. Out of 426 respondents, only 226 (53%) had a high risk perception, whereas 220 (47%) had a low risk perception. A significant association was noted between the level of risk perception and gender (x2=20.9, p=0.000), level of education (x2=42.9, p=0.000), nationality (x2=7.5, p= 0.006) and region of arrival of the passengers (x2=26.2, p= 0.000). The results of the study revealed that 220 (47%) of the travellers had a low risk perception that may lead to an increase in the burden on healthcare system in Pakistan as well as exporting any new disease from Pakistan to other parts of the world where it does not already exist.

Risk field modeling of urban tunnel based on APF.

OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this paper is to explore the changing laws of driving safety in the complex and changing driving environment in urban tunnels, to analyze the evolution of driving risk fields caused by changes in adjacent vehicles, driving behavior characteristics and road environment, and to reveal the formation mechanism of tunnel driving danger zones. METHODS: The kinetic field, behavioral field and potential field models are constructed according to the APF theory. The driving safety risks arising from the surrounding vehicles, driving behavior characteristics and changes in the tunnel environment are analyzed in the process of driving from the open section to the exit of the tunnel. RESULTS: The magnitude of the risk field force is inversely proportional to the spacing of the vehicles and the distance between the tunnel sidewalls, and is proportional to the relative speed between the vehicles and the slope of the longitudinal slope. Under the same conditions, the vehicle at the entrance and exit of the tunnel is subjected to a greater force of travel risk than inside the tunnel, and the effect of speed on the force of the risk field is greater than the distance. CONCLUSIONS: The established model better describes the trend of driving risk during the driving of vehicles in urban tunnels, and the research findings can provide theoretical support for the design and traffic management of urban tunnels.

Implementation of a realistic artificial data generator for crash data generation.

In this paper, a framework is outlined to generate realistic artificial data (RAD) as a tool for comparing different models developed for safety analysis. The primary focus of transportation safety analysis is on identifying and quantifying the influence of factors contributing to traffic crash occurrence and its consequences. The current framework of comparing model structures using only observed data has limitations. With observed data, it is not possible to know how well the models mimic the true relationship between the dependent and independent variables. Further, real datasets do not allow researchers to evaluate the model performance for different levels of complexity of the dataset. RAD offers an innovative framework to address these limitations. Hence, we propose a RAD generation framework embedded with heterogeneous causal structures that generates crash data by considering crash occurrence as a trip level event impacted by trip level factors, demographics, roadway and vehicle attributes. Within our RAD generator we employ three specific modules: (a) disaggregate trip information generation, (b) crash data generation and (c) crash data aggregation. For disaggregate trip information generation, we employ a daily activity-travel realization for an urban region generated from an established activity-based model for the Chicago region. We use this data of more than 2 million daily trips to generate a subset of trips with crash data. For trips with crashes crash location, crash type, driver/vehicle characteristics, and crash severity. The daily RAD generation process is repeated for generating crash records at yearly or multi-year resolution. The crash databases generated can be employed to compare frequency models, severity models, crash type and various other dimensions by facility type - possibly establishing a universal benchmarking system for alternative model frameworks in safety literature.

Identification of critical links based on the optimal reliable path in stochastic traffic networks.

In urban stochastic transportation networks, there are specific links that hold great importance. Disruptions or failures in these critical links can lead to reduced connectivity within the road network. Under this circumstance, this manuscript proposed a novel identification of critical links mathematical optimization model based on the optimal reliable path with consideration of link correlations under demand uncertainty. The method presented in this paper offers a solution to bypass the necessity of conducting a full scan of the entire road network. Due to the non-additive and non-linear properties of the proposed model, a modified heuristic algorithm based on K-shortest algorithm and inequality technical is presented. The numerical experiments are conducted to show that improve a certain road link may not necessarily improve the overall traffic conditions. Moreover, the results indicate that if the travel time reliability is not considered, it will bring errors to the identification of key links.

Measuring high-speed train delay severity: Static and dynamic analysis.

This paper focuses on optimizing the management of delayed trains in operational scenarios by scientifically categorizing train delay levels. It employs static and dynamic models grounded in real-world train delay data from high-speed railways. This classification aids dispatchers in swiftly identifying and predicting delay extents, thus enhancing mitigation strategies' efficiency. Key indicators, encompassing initial delay duration, station impacts, average station delay, delayed trains' cascading effects, and average delay per affected train, inform the classification. Applying the K-means clustering algorithm to standardized delay indicators yields an optimized categorization of delayed trains into four levels, reflecting varying risk levels. This static classification offers a comprehensive overview of delay dynamics. Furthermore, utilizing Markov chains, the study delves into sequential dynamic analyses, accounting for China's railway context and specifically addressing fluctuations during the Spring Festival travel rush. This research, combining static and dynamic approaches, provides valuable insights for bolstering railway operational efficiency and resilience amidst diverse delay scenarios.

[Travel time to memory clinics in Bavaria: A geographical analyses within the framework of digiDEM Bayern]. / Räumliche Erreichbarkeit von Gedächtnisambulanzen ­ Eine geographische Analyse im Rahmen von digiDEM Bayern.

BACKGROUND: Memory clinics can contribute significantly to a qualified diagnosis of dementia. Since the accessibility of medical facilities is an important predictor for their utilisation, the aim of this study was to determine the accessibility of memory clinics for persons with dementia in Bavaria. METHODS: We used a Geographic Information System (GIS) to determine travel times to the nearest memory clinic for all Bavarian municipalities based on OpenStreetMap road network data. RESULTS: The majority of the modelled persons with dementia in Bavaria (40%; n = 93,950) live in communities with an average travel time of 20 to 40 minutes to the nearest memory clinic. Almost 7,000 (3%) require more than one hour. Especially persons from rural communities have to travel significantly longer distances than people from urban areas. CONCLUSION: In view of demographic developments, there is an urgent need for memory clinics to be accessible throughout the country for all persons with dementia, regardless of where they live. The systematic development of memory clinics in areas with long travel times or the establishment of mobile diagnostic services could help to improve dementia care.

Interventional Study of Nonpharmaceutical Measures to Prevent COVID-19 Aboard Cruise Ships.

Cruise ships carrying COVID-19-vaccinated populations applied near-identical nonpharmaceutical measures during July-November 2021; passenger masking was not applied on 2 ships. Infection risk for masked passengers was 14.58 times lower than for unmasked passengers and 19.61 times lower than in the community. Unmasked passengers' risk was slightly lower than community risk.

Joint optimization of headway and number of stops for bilateral bus rapid transit.

The bilateral Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) system is a kind of BRT system in which the stops are located in the middle of the transit lane. By simultaneously serving transit lines in opposite directions, it is particularly designed to save space resources and enhance service quality. To improve the operational efficiency of the bilateral BRT, this paper optimizes the operational performance of bilateral BRT with elastic demand. The objective is to minimize the generalized time cost per passenger of the system by jointly optimizing the headway and number of stops of bilateral BRT. The cost includes the agency operating and user travel. The optimal design model is formulated as a mixed-integer program and solved using a fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP) and a genetic algorithm (GA). We conduct a case study and sensitivity analysis to show the effectiveness and reliability of the proposed approach. We conclude that the optimized minimum generalized cost per passenger is lower than the actual case for all demand levels, especially at off-peak hours, by about 22.5%. In addition, we find that the weights of agency and user costs have the most significant impact on headway, whereas the influence of walking, vehicle speed, and route length is minimal. In contrast, the optimal number of BRT stops is mostly influenced by the route length, and walking speed has essentially no effect on the optimal number of stops. Finally, we find that the generalized cost per passenger at peak hours is 10% to 15% smaller than at off-peak hours in various scenarios.

[Medical emergencies on board of means of transport]. / Medizinische Notfälle an Bord von Verkehrsmitteln.

Medical emergencies occur always and everywhere. The care of patients on board means of transport is not possible with the quality and routine that takes place in ground- or air-based emergency services. Nevertheless, there are some concepts for patient care. The article describes typical emergency medical problems for the scenarios of train, ship and air travel and presents the existing possibilities for practical emergency medical assistance.